Investment intelligence for credit and real assets
We price the cost of debt, track the terms clearing in the market, and model expected loss by asset class, then translate all of it into the levered return a given capital structure can support. Across commercial real estate, from office and multifamily to data centers and industrial logistics.
Built for acquisitions teams, credit committees, and lenders underwriting real assets.
Relative value: credit spread versus expected loss
Each asset class is plotted by the credit spread it pays against the loss we expect it to take. Anything above the line is paying more than the risk warrants. Anything below it is not. Bubble size is the size of the market.
How data centers and logistics assets are priced, and how much debt the cash flow can actually carry.
Infrastructure Debt Capacity Index
IDCI$750M
Per 100M NOIScale is implied loan proceeds per 100 million dollars of net operating income at a 1.85x coverage floor. Falling readings mean the same income stream supports less debt.
SOFR, sourced from FRED.
Credit spread, debt service coverage floor, amortization term, and net operating income. All four are stated assumptions, not observed values.
INDUSTRIAL LOGISTICS
PER SF PER YEAR
$8.50
Average base rent, major US logistics markets
Distribution assets are underwritten on rent per square foot, so leasable area and rent growth drive the return.
DATA CENTERS
PER KW PER MONTH
$75.00
Wholesale capacity, facilities above 100 MW
Capacity deals are underwritten on rent per kilowatt against contracted megawatts, so power, not floor area, sets the value.
Power is the real constraint
Data center demand is now moving faster than utilities can deliver capacity. That makes a signed power allocation, not the building, the asset that lenders underwrite and that investors should be paying for.
[ Provenance & Data Source Ledger ]
Index inputs and benchmark rates: LIVE FEED ➔ Source: FRED, updated daily
Market rent benchmarks: PLATFORM ASSUMPTION ➔ Source: 29 Equity underwriting baselines
What lease term is worth to levered IRR
Duration is the single largest driver of leverage capacity and yield on cost. Each case holds the asset constant and shows how five more years of contracted term changes the debt terms and the return on equity.
Industrial logistics
1,000,000 SF distribution asset
Underwritten on base rent per SF per year
| Metric | Shorter term | Longer term | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Contracted lease term | 10 years | 15 years | +5 years |
| Debt spread over SOFR | 225 bps | 175 bps | 50 bps tighter |
| DSCR covenant | 1.35x | 1.25x | 0.10x lower |
| Supportable leverage (LTV) | 58% | 65% | +7 pts |
Cheaper debt at a lower DSCR covenant raises supportable leverage, which lifts levered IRR without changing a dollar of NOI.
Data centers
100 MW purpose built facility
Underwritten on base rent per kW per month
| Metric | Shorter term | Longer term | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Contracted lease term | 15 years | 20 years | +5 years |
| Debt spread over SOFR | 250 bps | 175 bps | 75 bps tighter |
| DSCR covenant | 1.35x | 1.20x | 0.15x lower |
| Yield on cost | 8.20% | 10.50% | 230 bps wider |
| Development spread over cap rate | 120 bps | 350 bps | +230 bps |
Investment grade offtake on a twenty year term turns development risk into financeable cash flow. The spread between yield on cost and the exit cap rate is where the equity value is created.
Illustrative structuring levels, not observed market prints.
What we check before capital goes out
The items that decide whether an asset clears underwriting, and the ones that most often turn a good looking deal into a bad one.
Industrial logistics
Data centers
Where the credit risk actually sits
Current delinquencies, maturity concentration, forward default forecasts, and expected loss by asset class across office, multifamily, retail, industrial, hospitality, and data centers.
Capital Allocation Signal
PD × LGD ranking
| Asset Class | PD 12M | LGD | Exp. Loss | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data CentersCMBS SASB | 0.31% | 30% | 9.3bps | Add |
| MultifamilyAgency Multifamily | 1.01% | 25% | 25.3bps | Add |
| IndustrialCMBS Conduit | 1.83% | 28% | 51.2bps | Add |
| OfficeBank Balance Sheet | 4.31% | 42% | 181bps | Hold |
| HospitalityCMBS Conduit | 4.68% | 40% | 187.2bps | Hold |
| MultifamilyBridge Loans | 7.04% | 25% | 176bps | Trim |
| RetailCMBS Conduit | 8.41% | 38% | 319.6bps | Trim |
| OfficeCMBS Conduit | 15.61% | 42% | 655.6bps | Trim |
Add: spread compensates well for expected loss. Hold: spread roughly compensates for expected loss. Trim: spread does not compensate for expected loss at current levels.
Predictive model output, not guaranteed outcomes. Not investment advice.
Forward-looking 12-month default forecast per debt product, built from current delinquency data, interest-rate forward curves, and maturity-wall exposure, applied against current outstanding exposure (EAD = current UPB). PD = Probability of Default (12M forecast). LGD = Loss Given Default (asset-class severity). Expected loss = PD × LGD × exposure. Value = spread / expected loss. Source: 29 Debt Intelligence predictive model.
Downstream Asset Class Impact: Commercial Real Estate Portfolio Ledger
Mapping global interest rate path stressors directly to traditional multifamily, office, and industrial capital stacks. Evaluates structural maturity walls, debt refinancing pressures, and bank loss provisions.
Forward looking maturities only (Q3 2026 onward); excludes loans already matured earlier in 2026. Timeline covers the $113B highest risk asset class and debt product slice, a subset of the full $875B 2026 wall.
Asset Class · Debt Product
| Asset Class | Maturing UPB | Sub 1.0x DSCR | Highest Risk Submarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| OfficeCBD Office | $31B | 68% | New York, Chicago, San Francisco |
| MultifamilyValue Add Bridge | $48B | 42% | Phoenix, Atlanta, Austin |
| RetailEnclosed Mall | $18B | 54% | Midwest Regional Markets |
| IndustrialSpeculative Warehouse | $14B | 31% | Inland Empire, Memphis, Columbus |
Source: MBA CREF, 2026 maturities. Trepp, August 2026. Federal Reserve Flow of Funds.
| Debt Product | Stress | Primary Risk |
|---|---|---|
| CMBS Office | Critical | Maturity wall no refi |
| Bank Office Loans | High | Sub 1.0x DSCR at maturity |
| Bridge Multifamily | High | Rate cap expirations |
| CMBS Retail | High | Balloon default risk |
| CMBS Hospitality | Elevated | RevPAR softening at maturity |
| CMBS Industrial | Moderate | Speculative warehouse oversupply |
| Agency Multifamily | Stable | GSE backstop intact |
| Data Centers SASB | Low | AI demand tailwind |
Source: 29 Debt Intelligence risk matrix. Trepp, August 2026. MBA CREF, 2026 maturities.
How credit holds up when rates move
The same exposures run through a parallel rate shock, across large corporate balance sheets and the US banking system.
Inputs are pulled live from FRED series COMREPUSQ159N and DRCRELEXFACBS and from SEC EDGAR quarterly filings.
Each scenario applies a parallel rate shock to the same underlying positions. Compare readings across scenarios to see which exposures deteriorate fastest, not which look worst today.
Projected 12 Month Default Rate Under Rate Stress
Change in 12 Month Default Rate, bps
Same positions, 3 rate paths, each line calibrated to its own base case. The spread between lines is the risk the current default rate does not show.
4.12x
EBIT / Aggregate Interest Expense
2.4%
FRED DRCRELEXFACBS proxy
1.25x
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
What a refinancing at today's forward curve does to interest coverage on floating rate debt, and how much cash runway that leaves.
How a higher rate environment compresses property values and pushes default rates on bank held real estate loans.
Where credit quality migrates first, so exposure can be repositioned before the losses actually show up.
Projected Default Rates Under Stress
Current projected 12 month default rates by asset class against the same projections under the plus 300 basis point scenario, at 3, 6, and 12 months forward.
| Asset Class | 3M BASE / STRESS | 6M BASE / STRESS | 12M BASE / STRESS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Office | 9.8% / 11.2% | 10.8% / 12.4% | 12.2% / 14.1% |
| Multifamily | 5.1% / 6.2% | 6.4% / 7.8% | 8.1% / 9.4% |
| Retail | 6.2% / 7.4% | 7.1% / 8.5% | 8.3% / 9.9% |
| Industrial | 1.4% / 1.8% | 1.7% / 2.2% | 2.1% / 3.9% |
| Hospitality | 3.2% / 4.1% | 3.9% / 4.8% | 5.0% / 6.8% |
| Data Centers | 0.38% / 0.52% | 0.42% / 0.61% | 0.47% / 0.78% |
Refinancing Capacity Under Stress
What the projected all in borrower rate does to loan proceeds. Every row assumes a 100 million dollar maturing balance and holds net operating income and collateral value flat, isolating the effect of the rate move.
| Asset Class | All In Rate | Supportable Proceeds | Implied Max LTV | Required Debt Yield | Refinance Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | 7.95% | $82.2M | 82.2% | 10.95% | $17.8M |
| Retail | 7.60% | $80.3M | 80.3% | 10.59% | $19.7M |
| Hospitality | 8.70% | $89.4M | 89.4% | 11.75% | $10.6M |
| Multifamily | 6.45% | $68.9M | 68.9% | 9.43% | $31.1M |
| Industrial | 6.85% | $73.4M | 73.4% | 10.22% | $26.6M |
| Data Centers | 7.10% | $53.6M | 53.6% | 14.92% | $46.4M |
Loan spreads are indicative new origination whole loan spreads over the 10 year Treasury for fixed rate takeout. Floating rate bridge product prices over Term SOFR. Spreads and the stress widening step are stated assumptions.
What the bond market charges, by asset class
Senior and mezzanine spreads over the benchmark on newly issued real estate bonds. These are securities spreads, not the rate a borrower pays. Read them against the maturity wall above to see where refinancing pressure meets the widest pricing.
| Asset Class | AAA Spread | BBB- Spread | Trend | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | 145bps | 838bps | ▲ Widening | Persistent vacancy, hybrid work, and maturity distress heavily penalize office debt. |
| Multifamily | 80bps | 375bps | ▼ Tightening | Benefits from recurring cash flows and strong institutional absorption. |
| Retail | 103bps | 500bps | Stable | Grocery-anchored retail performs well, while low-tier enclosed malls remain shunned. |
| Industrial | 75bps | 363bps | ▼ Tightening | Solid logistics demand and low default risk make this the tightest collateral. |
| Hospitality | 118bps | 570bps | ▲ Widening | Operational leverage and macro sensitivity dictate wider underwriting buffers. |
| Data Centers | 75bps | 365bps | ▼ Tightening | Hyperscale AI demand and strong tenant credit profiles drive aggressive appetite. |
Base/stress default rates: 29 Debt Intelligence predictive model, base case and +100bps forward curve stress. CMBS spreads: grounded in market commentary blended with live Federal Reserve banking call report metrics.
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