29 EQUITY RESEARCH
CRE debt market intelligence. Published weekly.
Forward looking analysis on CMBS default trajectories, asset class stress, and capital allocation signals for institutional lenders and debt funds.
LATEST RESEARCH
Top 10 Most Vulnerable CRE Debt Products in August 2026
SOFR Forward Curve Update July 2026
Most Stressed CRE Debt Markets July 2026
CRE Default Rate Forecast Update July 2026
The Great Rotation: Why $1.8 Trillion in Private Credit Is Refilling the Bank Retreat in CRE Debt
Regional banks have pulled roughly $250 billion of commercial real estate lending capacity out of the market since 2023. Private credit funds, now a $1.8 trillion asset class, are stepping into the gap — but at spreads and structures that reprice the entire debt stack. Here is what the rotation means for allocation.
Office CMBS Delinquency Just Set an All-Time High at 12.34 Percent. The Repricing Is Not Over.
Office CMBS delinquency hit 12.34 percent in January 2026 per Trepp — a new all-time high, surpassing the prior 11.76 percent October 2025 peak. With the overall CMBS rate at 7.55 percent and matured non-performing balloons dominating new delinquencies, the office repricing has further to run. What lenders should do now.
The SOFR Forward Curve Is Telling Lenders to Stop Waiting for Rescue Cuts
The market has priced in rate relief every year since 2023, and every year the relief has come slower and shallower than the maturity wall required. Reading the current SOFR forward curve — and the gap between what borrowers assume and what the curve implies — is now the single most important input to any 2026 refinancing decision.
Office CMBS Delinquency Hits 11.53 Percent. What Debt Funds Need to Know Before Year End.
Office CMBS delinquency reached 11.53 percent in May 2026, up 532 basis points since Q1 2025. With $31 billion in office loans maturing in the next 12 months and refinancing markets effectively closed, debt funds holding legacy office exposure face a binary decision before year end.
The $400 Billion Maturity Wall. Which Debt Products Face the Highest Refinancing Risk in 2026.
Over $400 billion in commercial real estate loans mature through year end 2026. Most carry debt service coverage below 1.0x at current rates. This report identifies which debt products and markets face the highest concentration of refinancing risk and what it means for capital allocation.
Industrial CMBS Delinquency Spikes 35 Basis Points. Is the Safe Haven Thesis Breaking Down?
Industrial CMBS delinquency rose 35 basis points month over month in May 2026, the sharpest single month move in the current cycle. This report examines what is driving the deterioration and whether the industrial safe haven thesis remains intact.